Buying Votes - Democracy to the Test in Thailand and Cambodia

Thailand is in turmoil again and the divisions, once again, seem irreconcilable. At least not in any way consistent with democracy. This time it’s the yellow shirts who are on the warpath with the aim of shutting down the capital, Bangkok, until they achieve the ouster of the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, brother of the despised Taksin Shinawatra. The yellow shirts have the backing of the Bangkok elite and voters in the south. The principal political party they back – the Democrat Party – hasn’t won an election in more than 20 years. They consider any government affiliated with Taksin to be controlled by him from his self-imposed exile. At this point, they are as opposed to democracy as they are to Taksin. Their plan, once they bring down the government, is to install an appointed people’s council and, I surmise, change the electoral rules to prevent the majority from office.

Yingluck’s backing, the red shirts, is in the more populous north and northeast. Starting with Taksin’s win in 2001, he or parties affiliated with him have won every election and by wide margins. His first win was the first time any single party had won a parliamentary majority and their hold of the majority of Thailand’s people is rock solid. The snap election called by Yingluck for early February to try to ease tensions is certain, absent a military coup before then, to return her to power.

The yellows complain most about his corruption. On that score they’re correct, he’s an unmitigated sleazeball. This is best exemplified by they way he had the tax laws changed to exempt the $2 billion sale of his telecom empire from taxes just before the sale.

I consider him reprehensible on another account; that is, being responsible for mass murder. He promised in his first campaign to eradicate drugs within three months. Once elected he directed the police to kill lots of drug dealers. Within a few weeks about 2500 ‘drug dealers’ were summarily executed. In quotes because without access to fair trials and the ability to defend themselves, it’s absolutely certain that hundreds of innocent people were murdered. Maybe they were small-timers who sold only to supply their own needs. Others just happened to be on some police captain’s hit list. His mass murder campaign was supported by the vast majority of Thais, so you won’t hear the opposition complaining about that.

But they hate him most for the way he ‘bought’ poor people’s votes, you know, free health care, easy credit for the peasantry, development money for villages. That is rich coming from them since political parties in Thailand have a long history of actually using cash to buy votes on election day.

Step back for a minute. If an American politician proposed increasing Social Security, instituting true universal health care, making higher education more affordable, would you call that buying my vote? Yes, it would benefit me personally, but I also think those changes would be good for the country. Would I vote for a party that proposed to increase taxes on the poor so they could lower taxes on the wealthy? Hell no, that’s a vote for the greedy elite.

Whatever you think of Taksin, he’s the first Thai politician to ever consider the needs of the lower classes. Maybe you think he actually hates the peasantry and only bought their votes to gain power. Regardless, he’s the first to actually put money into Thailand’s majority. I spent a lot of time in the country in the early 1990s, including living and working there for most of 1993, and what I came away with was that the needs of the poor were totally neglected. It was always a government for the elite. For instance, When Bangkok’s skytrain, its first mass transit line, was completed in the late 90s a ride was priced at about $1. That was at a time when the minimum wage was about $90, so impossible for the poor to afford. The middle classes sped through town in air-con comfort while the poor spent hours in slow-as-molasses traffic sweltering in non-air-con discomfort. 

After Taksin was deposed, his party was still in power, so they chose another prime minister. He was ousted because of a conflict of interest: He earned $50 hosting a cooking show on TV. His replacement was kicked out by the Supreme Court on another technicality in the midst of the yellows shutting down the international airport and generally causing chaos. At that point a member of the opposition, Abbisit Vejijjiwa (forgive my spelling and minor discrepancies in my timeline) was put into power which in turn brought out the red shirt Taksin supporters. Their turn to shut down the city was broken up by the murder of 90 of their demonstrators. Meanwhile it was a forgone conclusion that the red shirts in the leadership of Yingluck would win the next election.

The country remained relatively calm for a few years until Yingluck proposed a blanket amnesty that would have included her brother as well as Abbisit and other elitists who are currently under indictment for the deaths of those 90 demonstrators. That sent the yellows into a state of apoplexy. Regardless of what it might have meant for their side, the idea that Taksin might be able to return set them into an artery-busting rage. Yingluck quickly removed the amnesty law from consideration, but the elitists were already fired up beyond reconciliation. So that’s where it stands now. They want to change the electoral laws to prevent the lower classes from gaining democratic power, thus abrogating the fundamental tenet of democracy; that of one person, one vote.  

Many countries have electoral systems that favor one group or the other. In Japan, Malaysia, the US, for instance, rural voters have disproportionate power. In Malaysia the smallest population district has 9 times the voting power per person of the most populous one and the ruling party remained in power after the last election even though they lost the popular vote. But can you imagine what will happen to the country if new laws created at the behest of the minority attempt to permanently prevent the majority from power?

The yellows have lost touch with reality. The red shirt majority will never abide by being stripped from power without a fierce struggle. Personally, I can’t help feeling that the elite hate Taksin more because he gave the poor hope for the future than for his corruption. This is similar to the Repug party in America which can’t stand the thought that the government  actually should put public resources into helping people. Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, Medicare, whatever it is, if it’s designed to help anyone but the moneyed elite, they’re against it, since in their minds anyone who isn’t rich isn’t deserving of government largesse.

Cambodia, right next door is also in turmoil with the first mortalities from demonstrations happening at the beginning of the year. Sam Rainsy, leader of the opposition CNRP – Cambodian National Rescue Party – has kept his elected legislators out of parliament in protest of voting irregularities. Latest studies have shown that the areas with the greatest problems were where Hun Sen of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party did best. Still, as mentioned in a previous post, the manner in which the seats are allocated strongly favors the CPP and even if the CNRP had won the popular vote they still could’ve lost the election. The major problem for them now is the reform of election laws. There’s no sense in having new elections until the voting laws are reformed and I see no way for that to happen if they’re not in parliament.

The opposition has been holding daily demonstrations since December 15, blocking major thoroughfares and causing massive disruptions. The government had been showing tremendous restraint until military police were brought in who started bludgeoning at random, which in turn brought out the worst in the demonstrators who started throwing rocks and burning tires. In addition to being a flaming racist bigot, Sam Rainsy has been piggy-backing on the dissatisfaction of garment workers who’ve been demanding a doubling of their wages. The workers were not much of a force for that change until the opposition took up their cause.

As opposed to Taksin who could promise government largesse for the poor and deliver, since the Thai government clearly had the resources, Sam Rainsy is blowing wind. It’d be great for the workers to earn a minimum wage of $160 month, but that is not something a government can take lightly. Not only might it put the current 20% annual growth of the industry in jeopardy, but it would also likely distort the job market. A large percentage of garment workers, most of whom are women, send money home to their families even at the current $80 month. While that pittance provides only a very hardscrabble life, nearly all of them will say they are much better off earning the current minimum than they would be living in their villages where jobs are practically non-existent. They certainly can be and have been an unruly bunch in their fight for better conditions but having the backing of Sam Rainsy has emboldened them and brought them to join the opposition’s demonstrations. At the present time almost the entire industry has been shut down.

Hun Sen clearly has been shaken, he even rhetorically asked, ‘What have I done wrong’. His major problem is that he’s been in power too long, almost 30 years. No matter how good you are as a leader you are going to offend and anger a lot of people in that time. Moreover, you lose sight of your human fallibility and make things happen without a lot of consideration of their impact on ordinary people. His strong focus on development has propelled the               country to multiple years of high growth - 7.5% this year - but this has involved over the last decade the forcible relocation of hundreds of thousands of people in both urban shanty towns and rural villages.

All of the capital’s former shanty towns have been leveled and nearly all of its lakes and wetlands filled for development. In the filling of one large lake close to the center of town 4000 families were displaced. Some of those families are still demanding fair compensation three years after they were removed and have taken up demonstrating and blocking roads at the same time the other demos are happening, adding to the capital’s traffic woes. (The desire to concrete over park space is not unique to Cambodia; massive demonstrations took place in Turkey when the government announced plans to build on the last green space in central Istanbul.) When added to demonstrations by the opposition and garment workers and lately teachers demanding $250 per month, the PM is getting it from all sides.

Nearly 10% of the country’s land area has been granted to agro-industrial businesses. While this is an excellent development model in the World Bank view of things (but not mine; I think it’d be far better to divide the land up amongst many small holders then single large agribusinesses) it has involved large scale removal of villagers. And not just ordinary public land is being sold off – actually 99 year leases – but large parts of forested national parks and protected areas are also being leveled for sugar, rubber, acacia, oil palm and more. This all adds up to a disgruntled population and an easy target for Sam Rainsy who mostly focuses on Vietnamese concessions to further stoke racial tensions, even though they make up only a small part of the land sold off.

Hun Sen is often been portrayed in the international media as a dictator. That’s over the top in my opinion since true dictators only stay in power through intimidation and force, torture and incarceration of political opponents. He has no feared secret police. His party has consistently won elections. Though they aren’t perfect, it’s nothing like dictators who win with 99% of the vote. The fact that he only narrowly won the last election is proof enough that they are largely free and fair: not totally, but neither are elections in America.

Strongman, however does fit. In the past he has closed down whole businesses on a whim: Several years ago sports betting parlors employing thousands were closed down literally overnight when he gave the word. About three years ago he warned functionaries in the police and army that official license plates were not allowed for private vehicles – they get some free fuel and other perks. When the practice was not ended a year later, he gave them two months and threatened to impound any vehicle that still had official plates. They disappeared by the deadline, though they are now creeping back into use.

Until this latest election he talked about staying in power for another 20 years and back at the height of the Arab Spring, he smugly and confidently assured the people that it could never happen in Cambodia. I don’t think he’ll be ousted by street demonstrations, but he may be forced into new elections before his mandate ends.

The most unfortunate part of the whole mess is the total inadequacy of the opposition, especially the racism. Already Vietnamese businesses have been torched and destroyed. The way Sam Rainsy has played to the people’s prejudices, there can be no surprise if innocent Vietnamese citizens of Cambodia are attacked and even killed. He’s got many Cambodians thinking the biggest threat to their country is Vietnamese taking over even though they make up at best about 8% of the country’s population. According to him, illegal Vietnamese immigrants are a vanguard force that will eventually help the Viet government take over all of Cambodia. It’s total crap, but the people believe it. The greatest irony is that many of the young demonstrators screaming anti-Vietnamese epithets at police and CPP supporters and demanding Hun Sen’s ouster would not be alive today had Vietnam not intervened to stop the Khmer Rouge genocide which was taking tens of thousands of lives every month.

His attempt to buy garment workers’ votes by promising a doubling of the minimum wage would either unattainable if he was elected or if instituted could cause havoc in the economy with college grads earning less than garment workers. Much as I sympathize with their plight, those changes need to be more gradual, a condition which now seems impossible for the workers to accept after being stoked up by Sam Rainsy.

In latest news the government, using some violence, has cleared demonstrators from Freedom Park, a centrally located square capable of holding about 5000 people, and has temporarily prohibited further demos. The government had seemed to be showing a lot of tolerance towards the demos, but it’s not surprising they would crack down after violence resulting in casualties.

Finally, no matter how good a leader is, after 30 years in power it’s time for a change, except in this case the alternative would be worse.

It Ain’t Over Yet

All three stories I’ve been following recently – BP, Thailand, Israel – are assuredly unfinished, with serious repercussions yet to follow.


In BP’s case, its fouling of the Gulf has barely begun. It’s recent failing gambit to stop the flow of oil, the top kill, which involved pumping large amounts of trash into the well hoping to clog it up, was one more indicator of its impotency. To some it was a publicity stunt. Since plugging an undersea well hasn’t been done much in the past and never at the depth of the Deepwater Horizon blowout, they are just flailing away, trying anything they can think of, hoping it’ll be a magical cure.


It really wasn’t necessary for BP to think ahead and try to plan for possible blowouts or malfunctions since, paraphrasing Barack Obama, the technology is really advanced and so the chances of encountering problems is very remote.


But, as the famous Murphy once exclaimed, if something can go wrong, it will. So now the current Hail Mary is to make a clean cut in the riser, the pipe that leads up from the broken Blowout Preventer, and try to cap it so most of the gushing oil can be siphoned off. It would be impossible to make a tight fit in such a circumstance, so even if they are successful there will continue to be a substantial amount of oil leaking into the Gulf. They are now siphoning off about 30% of the oil and will try to increase that proportion; this is considered a success.


Regardless of the relative success of the latest gambit, it will continue to leak at least until August when one of the two relief wells now being dug is able to intersect with the leaking well so it can then be plugged off. Actually, the August target is a product of BP’s wishful thinking, independent experts think September is far more likely as a best case.


It is actually quite a challenge to drill from a mile above the sea floor and then through two and a half miles of earth and accurately intersect with the well casing. In fact, it’s entirely possible that neither of the two relief wells now being dug will hit the leaking well closely enough to plug it. In that case it would take another 4 months before the next attempts reach the well.


If they’re lucky, they’ll be able to plug the leak in September. That assumes the whole operation isn’t waylaid or seriously delayed by hurricanes, since the official storm season has officially arrived and is predicted to be an active one.


Meanwhile, the 1989 Ixtoc well blowout in Mexican waters took a full ten months to plug and that was only in 150 feet of water where divers could access the wellhead. More recently a blowout in the Timor sea took five tries before a relief well properly intersected the leaking well.


A lot of people, as reported, are angry at BP for failing to stop the leak. That is stupid and nonsensical. Rest assured BP is doing all in its power to try to stop the leak; its profits, not to mention its very existence is at risk.


People are also complaining that Obama is not doing enough to stanch the flow of oil. Here too they are way off base, there’s not much he or the government can do that BP isn’t already doing. As the government has said, it has neither the equipment nor expertise to do the work.


That said, Obama is partly culpable since the public should be directing the effort and controlling the narrative. BP has consistently tried to low-ball the estimate of how much oil is flowing and held back the first release of videos of the leak until pressure from congress and independent researchers was too great for it to refuse. BP made the ridiculous excuse that they were too busy trying to stem the flow to be distracted by showing the pictures… like you can’t scratch your balls and watch TV at the same time.


The US Environmental Protection Agency told BP to use a less toxic oil dispersant, BP arrogantly ignored the EPA directive. The government wasn’t told the top kill had failed until 18 hours after the fact. Cleanup workers are regularly sickened by the spill’s fumes but BP insists they are not to use respirators, probably because it wouldn’t look good. BP is not just trying to plug the leak they are also trying to cover their ass. With the government in control and information flowing more freely, independent experts might have been able to assist the effort.


Best case scenario is that the cap works to divert most of the oil so that the gusher continues at mere disaster level instead of catastrophic level, hurricanes conveniently wait to unleash their fury until after BP lucks out with one of its first two relief wells and the leaker is plugged in August. Equally likely is that the cap doesn’t work very well, fierce storms seriously hamper the relief well effort and it takes another six months to a year to stop the flow. By then the Gulfstream current could take the oil all the way to Europe.


It ain’t over in Thailand either.


Unelected Prime Minister Abhisit probably feels really good about himself for stopping the red-shirt protest. So good, in fact, that he’s forgone seeking reconciliation and accommodation with protestors who represent the majority of Thais and instead is seeking to charge its leaders with terrorism.


All he bought with the death of 88 protesters was a little time. The Red-shirts will be back. They feel the government was stolen from them and are rightly concerned that, even with an election, it will happen again. Since the government, backed by the yellows, believes that the riff-raff that makes up the opposition is not capable of governing – not smart enough essentially - they may well try to institute some form of limited democracy. Otherwise, as mentioned previously, the reds will undoubtedly win the next election.


Back when I first went to Thailand in 1992, it’s tourist slogan, Land of Smiles, was surprisingly true. Just entering immigration the guy behind the desk was as warm, smiley and pleasant as could be. Today, you’d need to look hard to find a smile in the same circumstance, it’s all completely matter-of-fact. Tourism has tripled over the last 18 years and become boring; the immigration officers working the lines probably have limited incomes and are pissed, consciously or otherwise, at the great income disparity in their country, the worst in the region.


Even back in 1992 I was surprised at poverty levels in a place with glittering high-rises and so many cars it had possibly the worst traffic jams imaginable: In many parts of Bangkok, traffic would back up in peak hour to the point where nothing would move for nearly an hour. Meanwhile, large numbers of people were living in hovels more typical of a dirt poor country like Cambodia than up-and-coming Thailand.


At this point the common people of Thailand are tired of seeing the fruits of prosperity residing totally amongst the elite, and livid with rage at how the first Thai government ever to consider their needs was deposed by people who seek to limit democracy so they can maintain their power and status.


So it ain’t over yet, the Red-shirts will be back.


Once again Israel has resorted to brute military force to counter its opponents. Since its continuing illegal and immoral blockade of Gaza (in which items as simple as pencils, notebooks and coriander are forbidden, not to mention the cement and other building materials desperately needed to rebuild the 50,000 homes and other important structures damaged or destroying in its attack on Gaza) is not justifiable either in international law or common human decency, the only response it can make is intimidation and murder.


Israel says it was attacked, but since they confiscated all cameras and cell phones, not to mention laptops, money and all personal effects, the other side of the story can not be shown. According to eyewitness accounts, Israeli commandos started firing even before the reached the Mavi Marmara’s deck, but, of course, there is no way to visually verify that.


While everyone else in the world is calling for an independent investigation of the incident, the Obama administration, in one of the most craven acts of political cowardice every recorded, wants Israel to investigate itself. We all know the outcome of that one.


The Rachel Corrie, the last ship to try to break the blockade just yesterday, couldn’t join the flotilla because of mechanical problems. For those of you unfamiliar with the story, Rachel Corrie was a young American activist who was crushed by an Israeli bulldozer in 2003 while trying to stop the demolition of a Palestinian home. She was in full view wearing bright clothes. The dozer operator chose to kill her. If you think he was ever punished for that murder, you’re living on another planet.


According to Israel the purpose of the blockade is to make life for Gazans so difficult they will turn against Hamas and choose a government more to Israel’s liking; that is, docile and subservient. It ain’t gonna happen. If it takes ten years or fifty years or a century, the Palestinians will not stop fighting for their land and freedom.


Israel likes to say it left Gaza but that’s a lie considering it still controls nearly everything that goes in or out. Israel’s plan for a two state solution to the Middle East would have the West Bank divided into three Bantustans each completely surrounded by Israeli territory thus enabling Israel the same stranglehold on the West Bank it now has on Gaza. A totally untenable non-starter.


Israel’s ongoing theft and colonization of Palestinian land in the West Bank (By the way, it’s not called the West Bank in Israel; there it’s Judea and Samaria, thus an essential part of Greater Israel) makes the two state solution impossible. What it really seeks to do is repress, harass and humiliate Palestinians to the point where they will go somewhere else; exactly where is not specified, though many Israeli Jews want to deport them all to Jordan.


As for the Free Gaza Movement, its leaders say they’ll be back next time with even more boats. They say they have many more people who want to participate in trying to break the blockade. I wish I could go myself, but all I can give is my sympathy.

Showdown in Thailand

Thailand’s embattled Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiwa has said that society can not be changed through intimidation. He was speaking of red-shirt protesters who’ve shut down an upscale hotel and shopping district in the center of Bangkok with their barricades of tires and bamboo poles. Abhisit has also made some serious threats to drive out the protesters by force.

This is beyond ironic since he owes his own tenure to yellow-shirt protesters who shut down Bangkok’s international airport in order to drive out an elected government. The yellow shirts represent the army brass, royalists and the Bangkok elite. They call themselves People’s Alliance for Democracy but they want a majority of parliament to be appointed rather than elected because in a free election they are certain to lose to the red-shirts who represent the masses.

The yellows positively despise Taksin Shinawatra, deposed leader of the red-shirts; at this point he’s more like a spiritual leader and probably financial benefactor. He’s in exile and can’t return without facing a jail term. I have very little respect for him myself; I consider him responsible for mass murder. He campaigned on a pledge to rid the country of drugs within three months of his election and upon taking office he ordered the police to take out a lot of ‘drug dealers’.

In the event 2500 people were summarily executed. According to the police they were all killed in drug turf shootouts. The killings met widespread approval amongst the people. The problem in Thailand is mostly meth which can certainly be a scourge. Even an expat I talked to not long after the killing spree thought it was a good idea; that is, until I pointed out that without benefit of fair trials and the opportunity to defend oneself, it was likely that at least ten percent – 250 people – were either entirely innocent or at most guilty of small time misdemeanors: certainly nothing worthy of death sentences.

The major complaint the establishment had against Taksin was the special treatment he set up for himself when he sold his telecom company, largest in Thailand. He had legislation passed which exempted the $1.9 billion sale from taxes. He was only the richest man in the country, but couldn’t stand to pay his fair share of the cost of government. It also rankled the elite that he sold it to Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, in other words it is now owned by a foreign government.

As a result of the hatred of Taksin on the part of the elite, he was ousted in a military coup in 2006. The problem is that he’s the most popular elected leader in Thai history. He’s the first to serve out a full term in office, the first to be reelected to a second term and the first to win an outright majority in parliament and not need coalition partners to govern.

He accomplished that popularity by being the first Thai leader to take account of the needs of the rural poor and common people in general. It certainly can be argued that he really doesn’t give a shit about the people and that his policies are pure populist vote buying, but that’s neither here nor there, the fact is he did it and the people love him for it.

The first prime minister chosen by Taksin’s party – which was still in power - after the coup was removed by the courts because of a conflict of interest: He hosted a cooking show on TV for which he received a token $50 payment. The second, as mentioned previously, was ousted, essentially driven out of power, by yellow-shirt protesters who shut down the airport until their demands were met.

The big question is why they were so adamant about ousting a Taksin oriented government after Taksin himself was out of the picture. I don’t live there, only in a neighboring country, but I have lived there in the past and have traveled there extensively. Even so, I can’t claim to be an expert on the situation, only an interested observer. At any rate, the only reason I can come up with for the elite’s resolve in removing an elected government is that they couldn’t stand seeing public benefits going to the country’s poor. I know it makes no sense, but that’s the best I can make of it.

The common people of Thailand have found their voice and their strength and are no longer willing to accept the trickle down benefits offered by the elite. Thailand has one of the least equitable societies in this region.

What gets me is how the royalists thought they could use people power to oust a government without expecting the opposition to take the same tact.

Where it stands now is that the red-shirts are demanding new elections. The prime minister has offered to bring up the date of the next election to this December instead of a year December, but the red-shirts are holding firm to an earlier date. How much more basic can you get than ask for an election to replace an unelected government?

There’s one wild card in the mix; Thailand’s ailing king. He is highly revered by the people and if he wished to intervene, the government would be out in a wink. Thailand has very strong Lese Majeste laws which make the least criticism of the king a serious offense. The king is still a strong stabilizing force, but his son, heir to the throne, is widely disliked by the Thai people. When the current king dies, there will be an additional strong destabilizing force in the situation.

I don’t see civil war, but in this volatile mix, almost anything is possible.