Thailand is in turmoil again and
the divisions, once again, seem irreconcilable. At least not in any way
consistent with democracy. This time it’s the yellow shirts who are on the
warpath with the aim of shutting down the capital, Bangkok, until they achieve
the ouster of the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, brother of the despised
Taksin Shinawatra. The yellow shirts have the backing of the Bangkok elite and
voters in the south. The principal political party they back – the Democrat
Party – hasn’t won an election in more than 20 years. They consider any
government affiliated with Taksin to be controlled by him from his self-imposed
exile. At this point, they are as opposed to democracy as they are to Taksin. Their
plan, once they bring down the government, is to install an appointed people’s
council and, I surmise, change the electoral rules to prevent the majority from
office.
Yingluck’s backing, the red
shirts, is in the more populous north and northeast. Starting with Taksin’s win
in 2001, he or parties affiliated with him have won every election and by wide
margins. His first win was the first time any single party had won a
parliamentary majority and their hold of the majority of Thailand’s people is
rock solid. The snap election called by Yingluck for early February to try to
ease tensions is certain, absent a military coup before then, to return her to
power.
The yellows complain most about
his corruption. On that score they’re correct, he’s an unmitigated sleazeball.
This is best exemplified by they way he had the tax laws changed to exempt the
$2 billion sale of his telecom empire from taxes just before the sale.
I consider him reprehensible on
another account; that is, being responsible for mass murder. He promised in his
first campaign to eradicate drugs within three months. Once elected he directed
the police to kill lots of drug dealers. Within a few weeks about 2500 ‘drug
dealers’ were summarily executed. In quotes because without access to fair
trials and the ability to defend themselves, it’s absolutely certain that
hundreds of innocent people were murdered. Maybe they were small-timers who
sold only to supply their own needs. Others just happened to be on some police
captain’s hit list. His mass murder campaign was supported by the vast majority
of Thais, so you won’t hear the opposition complaining about that.
But they hate him most for the way
he ‘bought’ poor people’s votes, you know, free health care, easy credit for
the peasantry, development money for villages. That is rich coming from them
since political parties in Thailand have a long history of actually using cash
to buy votes on election day.
Step back for a minute. If an
American politician proposed increasing Social Security, instituting true universal
health care, making higher education more affordable, would you call that
buying my vote? Yes, it would benefit me personally, but I also think those
changes would be good for the country. Would I vote for a party that proposed
to increase taxes on the poor so they could lower taxes on the wealthy? Hell
no, that’s a vote for the greedy elite.
Whatever you think of Taksin, he’s
the first Thai politician to ever consider the needs of the lower classes.
Maybe you think he actually hates the peasantry and only bought their votes to
gain power. Regardless, he’s the first to actually put money into Thailand’s
majority. I spent a lot of time in the country in the early 1990s, including
living and working there for most of 1993, and what I came away with was that
the needs of the poor were totally neglected. It was always a government for
the elite. For instance, When Bangkok’s skytrain, its first mass transit line,
was completed in the late 90s a ride was priced at about $1. That was at a time
when the minimum wage was about $90, so impossible for the poor to afford. The
middle classes sped through town in air-con comfort while the poor spent hours
in slow-as-molasses traffic sweltering in non-air-con discomfort.
After Taksin was deposed, his
party was still in power, so they chose another prime minister. He was ousted
because of a conflict of interest: He earned $50 hosting a cooking show on TV.
His replacement was kicked out by the Supreme Court on another technicality in
the midst of the yellows shutting down the international airport and generally
causing chaos. At that point a member of the opposition, Abbisit Vejijjiwa
(forgive my spelling and minor discrepancies in my timeline) was put into power
which in turn brought out the red shirt Taksin supporters. Their turn to shut
down the city was broken up by the murder of 90 of their demonstrators.
Meanwhile it was a forgone conclusion that the red shirts in the leadership of
Yingluck would win the next election.
The country remained relatively
calm for a few years until Yingluck proposed a blanket amnesty that would have
included her brother as well as Abbisit and other elitists who are currently
under indictment for the deaths of those 90 demonstrators. That sent the
yellows into a state of apoplexy. Regardless of what it might have meant for
their side, the idea that Taksin might be able to return set them into an
artery-busting rage. Yingluck quickly removed the amnesty law from
consideration, but the elitists were already fired up beyond reconciliation. So
that’s where it stands now. They want to change the electoral laws to prevent
the lower classes from gaining democratic power, thus abrogating the
fundamental tenet of democracy; that of one person, one vote.
Many countries have electoral
systems that favor one group or the other. In Japan, Malaysia, the US, for
instance, rural voters have disproportionate power. In Malaysia the smallest
population district has 9 times the voting power per person of the most
populous one and the ruling party remained in power after the last election
even though they lost the popular vote. But can you imagine what will happen to
the country if new laws created at the behest of the minority attempt to
permanently prevent the majority from power?
The yellows have lost touch with
reality. The red shirt majority will never abide by being stripped from power
without a fierce struggle. Personally, I can’t help feeling that the elite hate
Taksin more because he gave the poor hope for the future than for his
corruption. This is similar to the Repug party in America which can’t stand the
thought that the government actually
should put public resources into helping people. Social Security, Unemployment
Insurance, Medicare, whatever it is, if it’s designed to help anyone but the
moneyed elite, they’re against it, since in their minds anyone who isn’t rich
isn’t deserving of government largesse.
Cambodia, right next door is also
in turmoil with the first mortalities from demonstrations happening at the
beginning of the year. Sam Rainsy, leader of the opposition CNRP – Cambodian
National Rescue Party – has kept his elected legislators out of parliament in
protest of voting irregularities. Latest studies have shown that the areas with
the greatest problems were where Hun Sen of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party
did best. Still, as mentioned in a previous post, the manner in which the seats
are allocated strongly favors the CPP and even if the CNRP had won the popular
vote they still could’ve lost the election. The major problem for them now is
the reform of election laws. There’s no sense in having new elections until the
voting laws are reformed and I see no way for that to happen if they’re not in
parliament.
The opposition has been holding
daily demonstrations since December 15, blocking major thoroughfares and
causing massive disruptions. The government had been showing tremendous
restraint until military police were brought in who started bludgeoning at
random, which in turn brought out the worst in the demonstrators who started
throwing rocks and burning tires. In addition to being a flaming racist bigot,
Sam Rainsy has been piggy-backing on the dissatisfaction of garment workers
who’ve been demanding a doubling of their wages. The workers were not much of a
force for that change until the opposition took up their cause.
As opposed to Taksin who could
promise government largesse for the poor and deliver, since the Thai government
clearly had the resources, Sam Rainsy is blowing wind. It’d be great for the workers
to earn a minimum wage of $160 month, but that is not something a government
can take lightly. Not only might it put the current 20% annual growth of the
industry in jeopardy, but it would also likely distort the job market. A large
percentage of garment workers, most of whom are women, send money home to their
families even at the current $80 month. While that pittance provides only a
very hardscrabble life, nearly all of them will say they are much better off
earning the current minimum than they would be living in their villages where
jobs are practically non-existent. They certainly can be and have been an
unruly bunch in their fight for better conditions but having the backing of Sam
Rainsy has emboldened them and brought them to join the opposition’s
demonstrations. At the present time almost the entire industry has been shut
down.
Hun Sen clearly has been shaken,
he even rhetorically asked, ‘What have I done wrong’. His major problem is that
he’s been in power too long, almost 30 years. No matter how good you are as a
leader you are going to offend and anger a lot of people in that time.
Moreover, you lose sight of your human fallibility and make things happen
without a lot of consideration of their impact on ordinary people. His strong
focus on development has propelled the country to multiple years of high
growth - 7.5% this year - but this has involved over the last decade the
forcible relocation of hundreds of thousands of people in both urban shanty
towns and rural villages.
All of the capital’s former shanty
towns have been leveled and nearly all of its lakes and wetlands filled for
development. In the filling of one large lake close to the center of town 4000
families were displaced. Some of those families are still demanding fair
compensation three years after they were removed and have taken up
demonstrating and blocking roads at the same time the other demos are happening,
adding to the capital’s traffic woes. (The desire to concrete over park space
is not unique to Cambodia; massive demonstrations took place in Turkey when the
government announced plans to build on the last green space in central
Istanbul.) When added to demonstrations by the opposition and garment workers and
lately teachers demanding $250 per month, the PM is getting it from all sides.
Nearly 10% of the country’s land
area has been granted to agro-industrial businesses. While this is an excellent
development model in the World Bank view of things (but not mine; I think it’d
be far better to divide the land up amongst many small holders then single large
agribusinesses) it has involved large scale removal of villagers. And not just ordinary
public land is being sold off – actually 99 year leases – but large parts of forested
national parks and protected areas are also being leveled for sugar, rubber,
acacia, oil palm and more. This all adds up to a disgruntled population and an
easy target for Sam Rainsy who mostly focuses on Vietnamese concessions to
further stoke racial tensions, even though they make up only a small part of
the land sold off.
Hun Sen is often been portrayed in
the international media as a dictator. That’s over the top in my opinion since
true dictators only stay in power through intimidation and force, torture and incarceration
of political opponents. He has no feared secret police. His party has
consistently won elections. Though they aren’t perfect, it’s nothing like
dictators who win with 99% of the vote. The fact that he only narrowly won the
last election is proof enough that they are largely free and fair: not totally,
but neither are elections in America.
Strongman, however does fit. In
the past he has closed down whole businesses on a whim: Several years ago sports
betting parlors employing thousands were closed down literally overnight when
he gave the word. About three years ago he warned functionaries in the police
and army that official license plates were not allowed for private vehicles –
they get some free fuel and other perks. When the practice was not ended a year
later, he gave them two months and threatened to impound any vehicle that still
had official plates. They disappeared by the deadline, though they are now
creeping back into use.
Until this latest election he
talked about staying in power for another 20 years and back at the height of
the Arab Spring, he smugly and confidently assured the people that it could
never happen in Cambodia. I don’t think he’ll be ousted by street
demonstrations, but he may be forced into new elections before his mandate
ends.
The most unfortunate part of the
whole mess is the total inadequacy of the opposition, especially the racism.
Already Vietnamese businesses have been torched and destroyed. The way Sam
Rainsy has played to the people’s prejudices, there can be no surprise if
innocent Vietnamese citizens of Cambodia are attacked and even killed. He’s got
many Cambodians thinking the biggest threat to their country is Vietnamese
taking over even though they make up at best about 8% of the country’s
population. According to him, illegal Vietnamese immigrants are a vanguard
force that will eventually help the Viet government take over all of Cambodia.
It’s total crap, but the people believe it. The greatest irony is that many of
the young demonstrators screaming anti-Vietnamese epithets at police and CPP
supporters and demanding Hun Sen’s ouster would not be alive today had Vietnam
not intervened to stop the Khmer Rouge genocide which was taking tens of
thousands of lives every month.
His attempt to buy garment
workers’ votes by promising a doubling of the minimum wage would either
unattainable if he was elected or if instituted could cause havoc in the
economy with college grads earning less than garment workers. Much as I
sympathize with their plight, those changes need to be more gradual, a
condition which now seems impossible for the workers to accept after being
stoked up by Sam Rainsy.
In latest news the government,
using some violence, has cleared demonstrators from Freedom Park, a centrally
located square capable of holding about 5000 people, and has temporarily
prohibited further demos. The government had seemed to be showing a lot of
tolerance towards the demos, but it’s not surprising they would crack down
after violence resulting in casualties.
Finally, no matter how good a
leader is, after 30 years in power it’s time for a change, except in this case
the alternative would be worse.
