Thursday, February 9, 2012
Repuglican Circus
Monday, January 16, 2012
There’s a ‘2’ in My Milkfruit Tree
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Guilt Tripping
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Greek Drama
As part of the deal private Greek bond holders are going to take a 50% haircut; that is, lose half of their investment. The part owned by the big banks will then be covered by bailing them out. That is why there is such heavy pressure and urgency in getting Greece to take on the new debt; better the Greek people pay than France, Germany, etc., having to ‘recapitalize’ their banks with their own money.
In the end result, if everything works according to the troika’s optimistic projections, Greece’s debt to GDP ratio will fall to 120% in 2020. In other words, after eight years of wrenching and painful sacrifice, they will still be hopelessly mired in debt. Part of the problem, it seems to me, is that the leadership is conflating default with leaving the Euro. The two are not necessarily mutually exclusive, because even if Greece formally, technically ‘leaves’ the Eurozone and prints its own money, most transactions there will still be in Euros unless the government specifically prohibits their use, which would be absurd. Go to any European country outside the Eurozone and you can spend Euros as easily as the local currency, at least in the touristy or big city areas.
All the money now in circulation in Greece is Euros; tourism, the country’s number one industry will continue to bring in Euros and all contracts signed since Greece joined the Euro in 2001 are in Euros. The beneficiaries of those contracts will demand payment in Euros.
What’s to stop Greece from continuing to use the Euro after they’ve ‘left’ the Eurozone? For instance, I live in Cambodia in which the US Dollar makes up 80 to 90% of all transactions even though the country also has its own currency. There are no US coins here so everything priced less than a dollar is in riel, the local currency. Also all transactions with the government are made in riels. Cambodia, as well as the several other countries who use the dollar as their own never asked America for its permission to use the dollar.
As long as the Greek people are going to deal with hardship anyway they’re better off defaulting. That way it can be cathartic and the citizenry can come together in a national forum and decide where they want their country to go rather than be forced to accept the nasty, punitive, neo-con economic prescriptions/ultimatums of the elite whose primary goal is to protect their banks and by way of inference, their investments. As I’ve stated repeatedly, there’s too much money at the top. If the 1% aren’t willing to give some of it up in increased taxes they should at minimum lose out for their poor investment choices. If the top are cut down to size, everyone else will benefit.
While Greece, the small potatoes, is in turmoil, Italy, the big cahuna, is teetering on the brink. It’s that old contagion thing: If Greece is having problems, then maybe Italy will be next, so let’s jack up the interest Italy has to pay now. The bywords of the recent international summits is: Calm the Markets; that’s the primary goal of the bailouts and rescue funds. If the financial community, which brought down the world economy with its shenanigans, is the least bit ‘jittery’ then they’ll force up interest rates to the point where countries can no longer sustain them, so that Italy last paid 6.6% on its bonds. It cannot go on very long at that rate before it can no longer meet its obligations.
Italy’s debt is very large, 120% of GDP, but its annual deficit actually isn’t, so it’s not really in the same predicament as Greece which is running very large deficits on top of its extremely high national debt ratio. Nonetheless, because the Markets rule, they decide whether a country passes or fails. Without the ‘Greek effect’ few people would be noticing Italy’s problems, or at least not think they were all that important or imperative. High debt doesn’t matter as long as the lender thinks the loan will be repaid. Witness the US which is currently paying very low interest in spite of its massive debt.
To bail out Greece to the tune of a couple of hundred billion is one thing, but to come up with the trillion or so Italy would need… well, that would be a might more of a challenge, possibly even insurmountable.
Meanwhile in make-believe-land, aka, America, there is great wrangling and hand wringing over cutting the deficit by $400 billion a year - from $1.5 trillion to $1.1 trillion. Even after shafting people who depend on benefit programs - SS, Medicare, Medicaid, as Dumbocrats have proposed - there’s still a $1 trillion plus deficit. A healthy economy would reduce the deficit by $400 billion, but that’s nowhere on the horizon, especially since both parties are intent on taking money from commoners, who spend their money in the economy, rather than taxing the wealthy who hoard it or speculate, either way with no benefit to the society as a whole.
I know Obama has taken out his populist, election-is-approaching, talking points about taxing the wealthy, but it’s nearly all lip service since he’s proposing minute amounts from the very wealthiest; nothing that would remotely get the country’s books in order. Further, Congress’ most liberal members, cowed by the neo-con paradigm, are proposing a .25% financial transaction tax to yield $100 million per year when they should be demanding at least 1%. There’s no legitimate long-term investor who’d be put off by paying 1%.
When Greece’s debt to GDP ratio (under the present optimistic scenario) is down to 120% in 2020, the US’s ratio, without drastic attitude adjustments, will be up around 160%; where Greece stands today. Some argue the deficit is not a great problem, better to borrow to create jobs than be stuck with a faltering economy. I might agree if there weren’t such massive wealth reposited in the elite. If a single one time 8% wealth tax on those with more than a million dollars can cover an entire year’s deficit there’s no reason whatever for any cuts in benefit programs, and lots of economic, as well as moral, reasons to tap into those deep pockets.
The US is experiencing a deer-in-the-headlights moment. Crash and burn is coming but Congress is incapable of responding - except by digging in its heels, and challenging the gods of reality, as it were.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
It’s About Time
After getting mercilessly butt reamed over the past few years after getting royally shafted since Reagan’s time, the people are finally standing up and fighting. What began with a couple hundred hardy souls camping out near Wall Street mushroomed last weekend into 950 demonstrations in 80 countries.
However, just to try to make sure the demonstrators in the US understand that their quest for equity and fairness and a healthy economy for all is futile, the Congress, at the behest of President Obama, passed free trade legislation with Korea, Columbia and Panama. They wanted the people to know that it didn’t matter which party they voted for, they were going to get shafted nonetheless. While free trade areas do create certain types of jobs for Americans, many more are lost, that’s why a large majority of Americans are opposed to FTAs.
In addition, the worst, most egregious aspects of the pacts were left unchanged from NAFTA; that is, the rights given to corporations to sue for damages when environmental legislation, for instance, cuts into their profits. The most famous example was the Metalclad Company’s attempt to build a toxic waste dump in Mexico near the US border. When the local authorities refused a permit, the company sued and forced Mexican authorities to pay $25 million in compensation. What’s more, the trade courts that adjudicate those issues are made up totally of corporate hacks and their deliberations are in secret. While they do lately occasionally judge in favor of the environment, the first 48 cases were all in favor of the corporations and against the people.
Obama campaigned on the promise to renegotiate NAFTA to eliminate its worst aspects, instead, at the behest of corporations who own him and who have no interest in anything but their own profits, he’s carried them forward to taint the new pacts.
Or take the example of Greece. While it was the conservatives who were in power when the world economy started to meltdown, who used the deceitful and charlatanesque talents of Goldman Sachs to hide the true deficit, it’s the ‘Socialists’ who are now in power who are trying to ram austerity down the throats of the people. All mainstream political parties in the Western world, regardless of whether they call themselves conservative or liberal or socialist, have bought into the feed-the-rich, save-the-banks-at-all-costs, economic paradigm.
They say not feeding the banksters will result in catastrophe, but it’s already catastrophe for large numbers of people. In fact, the only people to really suffer in a banking meltdown would be the 1%, those who’ve been sucking on the government’s corporate welfare tit. The trillions of dollars spent to save the banks only went to protect the obscene salaries and bonuses of the banksters, the gifts to the banks did nothing for the economy or the citizenry in need. Much better to let the banks fail, pay off the small depositors, and use the vast sums now being spent to save bloodsucking monster banks to instead create new smaller community oriented banks. One trillion dollars would capitalize 1000 banks at $1 billion each, 10,000 banks at $100 million each, 100,000 banks at $10 mil each.
It would be good for the banks to fail and the 1% to take a big hit to their deep pockets because they are too rich and powerful, they need to be brought down. Those resources held by the few are not good for anyone or anything but themselves. Until they take a real hit, the world’s economy and politics can never be righted.
It’s not going to happen because the banks and the 1% own the government. With the exception of about 70 Democrats who call themselves progressives, there’s no movement in Congress to correct the wrongs of today’s economy and turn it into the right direction. 75% of the American people, including 55% of Republicans want taxes raised on the wealthy to bring down the deficit, but there isn’t a Republican in Congress who would vote for that, and not all that many Democrats either, and only a few Dems who would really fight for it.
We’ve been through this all before, I feel like I’m just repeating myself. I see no light at the end of the tunnel, no dawn on the horizon, no rainbow in a heavy, steely gray, overcast sky.
However, futile or otherwise, I’d love to be out there demonstrating. It’s cool, it’s fun, it’s solidarity, it’s comradeship, it’s a little bit of hope. And it’s about time.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Steve Jobs and the American Way of Capitalism
Eulogies for Steve Jobs have been coming hard and heavy since his expected but untimely death recently. He is recognized by everyone as a great innovator. To his fans, rather his devotees, he’s a genius, almost a demigod.
The last time I used an Apple product, it was an Apple II, back in the 80s. At a certain point the place I went to to use a computer had Macs, but for some reason I resisted moving to the much better system, maybe I’m just stubborn and slow to change. Over the years I’ve frequently had Mac lovers recommend the Apple system over the PC.
No matter how much better the system might be, adopting it was always problematical for me. In the beginning were the issues of compatibility, access to software and ease of repair, which were especially important as I was in traveling mode starting in 1992. In America, those issues would’ve been minor, in Asia a real bother.
The other, even more decisive reason for shunning Macs is that they’re so damned expensive, double or triple the cost of an equivalent PC. Jobs’ economic philosophy involved doing products so likable that people would be willing to pay a premium for them. It worked out well for him as he left this world with $6 billion in the bank, but it also strictly limited the number of people who could enjoy his ‘great innovations’.
Not only did he make his loyal and dedicated customers pay a heavy price for his products he also subjected them to indignities and rip-offs, such as not allowing purchasers of itunes songs to copy them to use on their other computers, or not making iphone batteries replaceable except by a very expensive process at an Apple store. That’s the gratitude he showed them after they showered him with adoration and fabulous wealth.
So he left with $6 billion in assets. If he had departed with ‘only’ half as much - but still far more than any one person could ever possibly need or legitimately use in one lifetime - because he priced his products more competitively and didn’t seek to soak his customers at every opportunity, a lot more people could’ve enjoyed his products and I’d feel more kindly towards him. He actually might have made even more than six billion if he’d kept a smaller margin, but sold a lot more.
In fact I would’ve loved to have an alternative to Microsoft, since I detest Bill Gates with an unrelenting passion, but Jobs made it impossible for me.
He exemplified the capitalist way, which is to think of innovation and quality only in terms of profit and whatever good might be accomplished by your work as peripheral. He might’ve been a good guy but he was also a greedy bastard.
He had it all but still died young. He had it all in this life but it’s hard to say if his great good fortune will extend to the next as it takes more than fat bank accounts in this life to get through the Pearly Gates to the next.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
It’s the Bank’s Problem
Greece is on the edge of default. All the money thrown at the country in recent times has been expended in the fervent hope that some miracle will happen to make the country’s debt sustainable. European and international financial institutions are in denial of the inevitable default so are merely delaying the day of reckoning.
They are deathly afraid that Greece’s default will drag several large European banks down with them, because that’ll mean ‘recapitalization’, in other words, another bailout. If they can stave off default by loaning the country lots of money (which it’s very unlikely to ever be able to pay back under any circumstances) then they won’t have to give away lots of money to their too-big-to-fail banks. Either way a lot of good money will be thrown after bad and the citizens of the more frugal northern countries called upon to bail Greece out will be just as irate as the Greeks who are being called on to make sacrifices.
There are three basic reasons why default is inevitable. First is that the country’s debt level is just too high. All of the austerity measures taken and demanded so far by the international financial institutions and Eurozone countries who are loaning the money are only reducing the annual deficit, not balancing the budget, so under the most optimistic scenario, Greece’s debt will continue to rise to even more stratospheric and unsustainable levels. Secondly, many, if not most of the measures undertaken to reduce the deficit are slowing the economy, thus raising unemployment, which then increases social costs and reduces revenue and so turns out to be counterproductive; the more austerity that’s enforced or attempted, the closer the country comes to default.
Finally, the people won’t stand for additional austerity regardless of any consequences that might befall the country. Maybe they truly do not understand the seriousness of the situation or maybe they do, but either way they are fighting back to the point where the government will be powerless to act. Maybe the Greek people think default will be better than trying to meet the country’s crushing debt obligations or maybe not, but either way it won’t be pretty. At least under default the slate will be wiped clean, or at least reduced to a manageable level.
Greece’s economic problems, along with those of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, UK, US and many more countries, goes back to the fundamental ethos of neo-liberal economics that’s held sway in the financial world since Reagan and Thatcher.
Neo-liberalism has three basic tenets. First is the obsession with growth in all situations regardless of the existential circumstances of each country. Second is the insistence on low taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Third is the demand that the actions of the economic establishment be unregulated.
Japan provides the best example of the absurdity and idiocy of the all-growth-all-the-time paradigm. Economists the world over have lamented Japan’s ‘lost decades’ of stagnant economic growth. But Japan is already a wealthy country and it not only has a declining population but also an aging one. If population as a whole is declining and the proportion of the elderly, who typically have less need or desire to consume, is growing then the economy should be declining, not growing. Moreover, if the economy is ‘stagnant’(I prefer the word, stable) in a declining population then its per capita income is actually growing: shouldn’t that be enough? And yet, in a frantic and ultimately futile attempt to adhere to neo-liberal economics the country has amassed the world’s highest debt to GDP ratio - 220% - building lots of bridges to nowhere. If they hadn’t accepted the obsessive growth paradigm they could’ve shared the available work and taken lots of vacations instead of continuing to work the longest hours of any industrial society. They could’ve rested on their laurels, been content with their already wealthy status and started to enjoy life.
The insistence on low taxes for corporations and the wealthy has two major impacts. One is the excessive and destructive speculation that arises from the wealthy having too much money on their hands. The other is the debt that governments accumulate because tax receipts are insufficient when the fat cats are lightly taxed.
Finally, the demand that the activities of society’s economic controllers be unregulated combined with them having more money than they know what to do with brings wild economic swings with inevitable and debilitating busts coming after giddy and unsustainable booms. It doesn’t have to be that disastrous for an economy or a people. Germany experienced a downturn equal to America’s but its unemployment rate grew only minimally. They accomplished that by setting up a program that encouraged companies to put people on short hours with the government making up the difference.
If we were going for sustainability, the good life, spiritual growth instead of blind, mindless consumerism, there’d be neither booms, nor busts. There’d be neither high unemployment, nor widespread poverty. It wouldn’t take much in the way of income redistribution to insure that no American needed to be hungry or homeless. Meanwhile, the poor and middle classes are called upon to sacrifice so that the wealthy can have more tax breaks. And the Repuglicans call it class warfare when the masses object.
Every tax law is a political statement; one way or another somebody is going to have to pay. Since nobody likes taxes and governments are therefore reluctant to levy them, they’ve relied on huge levels of borrowing to make up the difference in the fervent hope that economies will grow enough to make the additional debt payments tolerable. That works until the burdens get too large for governments to sustain and/or inevitable downturns happen because of deregulation and speculation. Either way you’re in a pickle.
Now Obama, our very own Manchurian candidate, is starting to talk tough about raising taxes on the wealthy. Ah, yes, the campaign is beginning and since raising taxes on the wealthy is supported by more than 70% of the American people, it sure won’t hurt his chances for reelection to throw a little red meat to the angry electorate. However, he also made sure to keep his overseers happy by agreeing to cuts in Medicare and Medicaid, saying he wouldn’t accept cuts in those programs without (minimal) tax rises for the wealthy. In other words, slash away wingnut congress, your dream of starting the evisceration hated social programs has been answered.
The world is slouching towards economic disaster because nothing has changed since the 2008 blowout to rein in out-of-control banksters. Witness a ‘rogue’ trader at Swiss bank UBS losing the bank more than $2 billion. You’d think they’d be watching a little more closely or investing a little more conservatively. The certainty of another crash is also indicated by a recent news announcement from the UK that retail banks, where people have their checking accounts, etc., were going to be separated from investment banking, which is no more or less than speculation, a.k.a., gambling. Separation is an absolutely essential change if future bailouts are to be avoided. The problem is that the UK’s new rule is not programmed to take effect until 2019, giving the banksters all the time they need to create another, even multiple, banking meltdowns. Why 2019? Why not 2050? Sure wouldn’t want to unnecessarily rush the banks, would we?
Anyway, there’s always more money in the coffers for bankster welfare… until there isn’t. There will be until the people rise up and say, No more!, regardless of the consequences.
